Revealed Intention

The first intent shown by Internet users came in the form of user searches. But search data initially had no time frame, level of desire, or other information associated with it – except for the following activity by the user. For instance, if the user made a purchase after a search, we could deduce their level of desire was high and their place in the sales cycle was deep. We then looked back at the information they’d entered in the search box and cross-referenced it with their subsequent activity. This allowed us to figure out that searching for specific multi-keyword phrases led to faster and higher conversions, and that singular, generic terms led to browsing-based activity, and so on.

But logical assumptions about what we would do, given certain search terminology, just weren’t enough to change the market. It had a temporary positive impact on marketing ROI. But, as we’ve grown able to figure out expected conversions to an even more precise degree, the positive spread – or differential – is decreasing, and, it’s pretty likely that as the level of certainty increases with a particular tactic, the cost will go up.

So how do we move to more explicit exposure of intention? How do we move to effective collaboration – banding together to achieve a specific goal, for example, whether it’s to save money, create a product, or harness processing power to solve complex computational problems? And how far away are we from this capability?

People made a major step toward collaboration with more explicit expression of intention as a natural extension of our activity in online communities. Simply, by telling friends and coworkers in our own circle our intentions – whether it was to buy a home or a car, go on vacation, or whatever – we automatically included qualifiers that aren’t needed in search. Maybe I’ve revealed that I’ll be renting a bungalow in Tahiti in three weeks and I am nervous about sun exposure because I burn really easily.

In a normal search scenario I might type in “best sun block”, which would trigger vaguely relevant ads to be sent my way. But by tapping into the semantics of the conversations I’m having with the people in my circle, an advertiser might be able to introduce something totally new – an intelligent suggestion that actually improves my experience. Maybe it’s an offer for a long-brimmed hat or reduced-cost tanning sessions. Maybe it’s tanning sessions at a local establishment two weeks from now since they know I’ll want to be building my base tan right before I go.

With the outcry of privacy invasion at Facebook, it was clear that users aren’t yet completely comfortable with the announcement of their previous activity or future intentions unless they’re given the opportunity to confirm them. In the case of Twitter, users detail practically every move they make, but again, it is pushed by them directly – as opposed to their cell phone mapping back GPS coordinates or taking random pictures against their will.

However slowly, users are starting to come around to more explicit expressed intention and some non-controlled manipulation of how those intentions are displayed. Even in the Facebook example, users are actually connecting with more friends, new causes and useful applications because of the listing of user actions.